Investment Bank Renaissance Capital has revised down its 2015 growth forecast for Nigeria to 2.8 percent.

The new growth estimates 2 basis points are lower than the estimated population growth rate of 3 percent in 2015.

“We revise down our 2015 growth forecast to 2.8% for two reasons: 1) 1 H15 growth of 3.1% year on year (YoY) came in below our 2015 forecast of 3.4%; and 2) we expect supply constraints, related to FX restrictions and the de facto import ban, to undermine growth in 2H15. As population growth is c. 3% pa, this implies negative per-capita income growth, which acts as a drag on the consumer sector,” Renaissance Capital economist Yvonne Mhango, said in an August 28 note.

Nigeria’s GDP expanded 2.35 percent on an annual basis in Q2 2015, compared with 3.96 percent a quarter earlier, Yemi Kale head of the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said last week.

The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10 percent of GDP, contracted for a second consecutive quarter, by 3.8 percent YoY in 2Q15, compared to growth of 14.0 percent YoY a year earlier.

This comes after double-digit growth in 2011-2014, and the decline is largely attributable to the largest manufacturing sub-sector, food, beverages and tobacco, which contracted by 5.9 percent YoY in 2Q15, compared to growth of 5.2 percent YoY in 2Q14.

The textiles sub-sector has also seen two successive quarters of negative growth.

“We believe manufacturing’s decline in 1H15 is partly because of tight FX liquidity, which makes it difficult for manufacturers to acquire imported inputs. It is also likely that severe fuel shortages in 2Q15 undermined production and distribution,” Mhango said.

PATRICK ATUANYA

BusinessDay

Comments

comments